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Treasury unemployment forecast points to years of slow jobs growth

14/12/2009

The Treasury’s decision to publish a forecast of claimant unemployment in the Pre-Budget Report is a welcome move, according to John Philpott, Chief Economic Adviser at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

But the forecast offers a very sober assessment of the medium-term outlook for the UK jobs market.

"The Treasury has made a bold decision in breaking with Whitehall convention to publish a forecast of claimant unemployment for the period to the end of 2012," he said.

"Ministers are doubtless pleased that unemployment has risen by less than expected during the recession, providing an unanticipated fillip to the beleaguered public finances. But while it now looks as though claimant unemployment will peak at a lower level (around 1.75 million) in 2010 than originally feared, the Treasury forecast offers no sign of a swift return to low unemployment.

"The Treasury reckons there will still be 1.5 million people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance at the end of 2012, which can be translated into around 2.3 million on the wider survey based measure of unemployment. This is 700,000 more than the pre-recession level of unemployment even after what the Treasury forecasts will be three years of healthy economic recovery.

"The Treasury has provided a very sober forecast of the medium term outlook for the UK labour market. The forecast implies that unemployment will probably remain above 2 million for the first half of the next decade even on what may prove to be an optimistic forecast for economic growth. Unemployment at this level will also act as a tough constraint on pay rises, which are unlikely to outstrip price inflation for some considerable time."

Postcard from Nevis - another happy matureaccountant

Some wags said : "Nevis position - that'll be horizontal, then?"
It's now three weeks since I arrived here in Charlestown, Nevis in the West Indies and the temperature is hot - usually around 30 C in the day and about 28 C at night. I had already met up with some of the staff at their annual group party in Surrey (prior to being offered the position) and in Guernsey and Sark for a few days to get a company teach-in. That was interesting and sociable - and I hadn't been to the Channel Islands before. So day 1 in Nevis wasn't a complete shock.

My wife, Pauline, accompanied me on our journey out. The first flight was by 747 to Antigua and then an 18 seater for the half hour onward flight to Nevis. She then spent a week getting to know the place before returning to the UK. For the first week we also had a team of executives from Head Office for the Nevis office's quarterly meeting so I was thrown into the thick of it. Pauline will return to Nevis once she leaves her employer in England at the end of July.

The company works in offshore financial services setting up and administering companies for clients to take advantage of Nevis's favourable regimes. My role is to concentrate on the internal accounts which were mostly run from Guernsey previously and to keep in order the many clients accounting and production of their statutory accounts, and I report to the finance team in the HO in Guernsey. This is to enable the local MD to deal with new business and operational work.

I had been looking at the MatureAccountants.com website for a while. I realised after taking early retirement, a few years back, after 18 years in senior - but not top management, that I neither really wanted nor was likely to get a conventional senior position. And my age, 56, probably didn't help. However when this position in the Caribbean came up it looked 'just the job'. I gather there was a fair size response and am still surprised that I got the position. It certainly wouldn't suit everyone particularly in tems of lack of cultural events and non-availability of everyday UK items (eg your usual newspaper, the BBC, supermarkets, handbags and shoes). And I'm sure Pauline will miss some things too!

Thank you Martin for the opportunity and well done MA.
(the photo is of me on the balcony of the company flat where I'm staying with the bay and Nevis Peak in the background)

Reaching Parts Others Cannot Reach!

Greetings from war torn Iraq !

This has been a marvellous appointment for me. As I am based in Erbil, life is peaceful amongst the Kurds. Even though there is a lot of posturing between PKK and the Turks, that is in the mountains and quite a way from here.

The work is pretty straightforward and, financially, it has made a huge difference to us – my wife is delighted! Monies are all tax free and everything is paid for – accommodation, food, laundry, driver and even booze. This a small office. I have no staff, which suits me, and I run the finances for 4 high earning, high charging lawyers. The other part of my job is work as a management consultant, charging myself out to the American and British companies out here. There is a great deal of oil exploration going on so you can imagine the client list. Local accounting expertise is pretty dire so often these companies are grateful for my knowledge and “mature” experience.

The only downside (apart from missing my wife and daughters) is that I get paid in dollars. Every time I look at the rate it gets worse (for me anyway). I can’t believe it can dip much further so the positive is that if it moves to, say, $1.88 to the £ I get a 10% increase. Sorry to be selfish but a UK slump would suit me perfectly.

Thank you once again for the introduction. My wife thanks you, my bank manager thanks you.

All the best

Alan Crawford

Matureaccountants: better than Heineken!

Martin,

A note to say how much I appreciate the help given by matureaccountants.com.

Since I started looking about 3 months ago, I have applied for loads of jobs via other web-sites and not even had a reply to most of them. In a situation like that you start to wonder whether because of your age you are wasting your time. You know you're capable of doing a job but recruiters appear to have written you off.

Anyway I saw your advert for a very interesting job in Malaysia, applied, was interviewed and I start next month. Very exciting times!
I definitely recommend your organisation and it's a concept that will work. There must be loads of mature accountants like myself (not on £80,000 a year!) who want a fresh challenge and are more than capable of making a significant contribution to whichever organisation hires them.

Best wishes in your endeavours.

Kind regards,

Duncan MacLeod

Matureaccounts: Finalists for the 2007 eBusiness Awards

Following weeks of preparation by companies from across the East Midlands, 26 of the region’s Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) have been chosen as finalists for the 2007 eBusiness Awards, with winners being announced on Thursday 22nd February at the East Midlands Conference Centre, Nottingham.

Over 100 entries from across the East Midlands were received from a host of new and exciting companies who have the realised the benefits of using Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to run their business.

The eBusiness Awards, previously known as the eCommerce Awards, recognise companies across the East Midlands who have demonstrated the best use of ICT. SMEs account for over 95% of the region's businesses and investment in ICT has a crucial role to play in the Regional Economic Strategy (RES) published by emda in July last year.

In the Category - Best eBusiness start up:

Adoptahen
Cruise Ahead Ltd
fillmybelly.com
Mature Accountants Ltd
Q Car Ltd
The Plate Market

Nottingham Business Venture: Spirit of Enterprise Awards 2006

Having been shortlisted for the SAGA 106.6fm Business Achievement Award for people aged 50+ Martin won the award last night at a glittering ceremony held at the Council House in Nottingham for what MatureAccountants has achieved in the last 12 months. In his acceptance speech Martin noted that in the last week alone we have found jobs for 3 candidates with a combined age of 162!

Our first-ever placement wows the client and gets the job done on time.

Dear Martin, I had a lovely send-off today, even though I've billed tomorrow and been paid. They gave me a card & 4 bottles of high quality wine. Come and enjoy it with me! You really could not have picked a nicer team for me. Many many thanks.
Robert Ropner